It was the year of Golden Pig, which comes only once in 60 years according to the lunar calendar. Tradition says that people born in that year are destined to have good luck and fortune throughout their lifetime.
Now moms who gave birth that year might be having some regrets.
As kindergartens start receiving applications for next year, parents are struggling to snag a spot on the enrollment list. Some famous kindergartens have hundreds on the waiting list.
Daejin Kindergarten in Seoul says it has more than 200 kids who are waiting to be admitted.
'I think we have 30 percent more kids than usual,' said Kim Ki-jeong, who is in charge of the preschool.
According to the National Statistical Office, there were 493,189 babies or 1.25 births per woman in 2007, up 10 percent from a year earlier, a spike in Korea's steadily declining birthrate.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
With retail-sales growth in the double digits every month of 2010 so far
Hong Kong retailers are looking forward to a very merry Christmas: This December is poised to draw the largest retail sales in years.
Christmas sales typically make December the highest-grossing month of the year for Hong Kong retailers, outselling Chinese New Year and Golden Weeks. Last year, December sales totaled 29.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, or $US3.8 billion, according to the Census and Statistics Department, growing 28% from November that year, and 16% from the year earlier.
January-to-September sales this year are up 17.9% from the same period in 2009.
In December, 'our tenants usually do twice the number in sales of an average month,' said Karim Azar, assistant general manager of retail leasing for the IFC mall in Central.
IFC is expecting a 20% or more increase in traffic in December over last year, with expected total spending in the mall to be up 30%.
Other malls are setting similar forecasts. Maureen Fung, general leasing manager for Sun Hung Kai Properties, said that its 33 shopping centers are all expecting about a 10% sales increase from a record season last December. By contrast, the United States saw a 0.3% drop in retail sales last December from the month before. Market research group eMarketer is forecasting a modest 2% to 3.5% growth for U.S. holiday sales from the year before.
A traffic increase in Hong Kong stores is helped by an influx of mainland shoppers in December, one of the most popular months for mainland tourists. This year's mainland visitors are expected to break the 20 million mark for the first time, according to chairman of the Hong Kong Tourism Board James Tien. As of September, total mainland visitor arrivals reached 16.5 million, a 28.1% increase from the same period a year earlier.
Although China doesn't traditionally celebrate Christmasâ 'few mainland companies give time off for the holidayâ 'Hong Kong retailers are instilling a cheer that they hope will translate to more shopping. Malls are spending more than HK$10 million on their Christmas programs, which include giveaways, performances and extravagant decorations.
Christmas sales typically make December the highest-grossing month of the year for Hong Kong retailers, outselling Chinese New Year and Golden Weeks. Last year, December sales totaled 29.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, or $US3.8 billion, according to the Census and Statistics Department, growing 28% from November that year, and 16% from the year earlier.
January-to-September sales this year are up 17.9% from the same period in 2009.
In December, 'our tenants usually do twice the number in sales of an average month,' said Karim Azar, assistant general manager of retail leasing for the IFC mall in Central.
IFC is expecting a 20% or more increase in traffic in December over last year, with expected total spending in the mall to be up 30%.
Other malls are setting similar forecasts. Maureen Fung, general leasing manager for Sun Hung Kai Properties, said that its 33 shopping centers are all expecting about a 10% sales increase from a record season last December. By contrast, the United States saw a 0.3% drop in retail sales last December from the month before. Market research group eMarketer is forecasting a modest 2% to 3.5% growth for U.S. holiday sales from the year before.
A traffic increase in Hong Kong stores is helped by an influx of mainland shoppers in December, one of the most popular months for mainland tourists. This year's mainland visitors are expected to break the 20 million mark for the first time, according to chairman of the Hong Kong Tourism Board James Tien. As of September, total mainland visitor arrivals reached 16.5 million, a 28.1% increase from the same period a year earlier.
Although China doesn't traditionally celebrate Christmasâ 'few mainland companies give time off for the holidayâ 'Hong Kong retailers are instilling a cheer that they hope will translate to more shopping. Malls are spending more than HK$10 million on their Christmas programs, which include giveaways, performances and extravagant decorations.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Eiji Hosoya is the man who masterminded the massive privatization of Japan's sprawling national rail network 23 years ago
He still speaks of shinkansen â ' Japan's ultra-cool and ultra-fast bullet trains â ' with a passion. Today, nimble and a youthful-looking 65, he's the chairman of Resona Holdings, the country's fourth-largest bank that suffered the ignominy of nationalization in 2003.
Banking may seem an odd choice for a man who's worked for Japan National Railways and East Japan Railway for over 30 years, but government insiders thought Mr. Hosoya had what it took to turn around a failed and decaying bank.
But Mr. Hosoya, one of Japan's most respected business leaders, says more broadly that Japan may also fail and continue to stagnate if the country doesn't take urgent action to turn its fortunes around. The problem with Japan is that 'we have weak leaders,' said Mr. Hosoya bluntly, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. 'Unless Japan changes, in five years from now, the country will become so weak.'
Mr. Hosoya says Japan needs to aggressively capitalize on its three biggest strengths: its strong service culture; technology; and, more broadly, Japanese culture. 'We have to appeal to South Korea, China and Taiwan â ' this is the volume zone for Japan and its services,' he said.
Banking may seem an odd choice for a man who's worked for Japan National Railways and East Japan Railway for over 30 years, but government insiders thought Mr. Hosoya had what it took to turn around a failed and decaying bank.
But Mr. Hosoya, one of Japan's most respected business leaders, says more broadly that Japan may also fail and continue to stagnate if the country doesn't take urgent action to turn its fortunes around. The problem with Japan is that 'we have weak leaders,' said Mr. Hosoya bluntly, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. 'Unless Japan changes, in five years from now, the country will become so weak.'
Mr. Hosoya says Japan needs to aggressively capitalize on its three biggest strengths: its strong service culture; technology; and, more broadly, Japanese culture. 'We have to appeal to South Korea, China and Taiwan â ' this is the volume zone for Japan and its services,' he said.
Monday, November 22, 2010
As if Tuesday's sell-off on the stock market weren't enough to be worried about
Global money managers have just turned dangerously optimistic. The booming market rally of September and October, and the Fed's new promise of easy money for all, proved too much for their self-control. They bounded into this month like eager puppies, their ears perked up and their tails a-wagging, eager to play.
Like I said: Oh, brother.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch says its latest survey of big fund managers, conducted between November 5 and 11, found 'market sentiment at its most bullish since April 2010.'
April? Hmmmm. Say, wasn't that just before the market slumped again?
Money managers have just dramatically raised their forecasts of economic growth (and inflation). And they have thrown as much money into stocks as they possibly could. Average cash holdings are down to just 3.5% one of the lowest readings on record.
Even hedge fund managers, those skeptical souls, have cautiously joined in. The survey shows their bets on rising shares, minus their bets on falling shares, have surged alarmingly since the summer. The most popular assets? Commodities, where institutions have become heavily over-invested, and emerging markets where they appear to have gone 'all in.'
This is ominous news. Big institutional investors move the market. If they have already invested most of their cash, it means there are fewer investors on the sidelines waiting to come in. Bank of America's survey polls around 200 big institutional investors around the world, with about $630 billion under management.
Among the other highlights from the survey: Money managers continue to shun gold, which they deem 'overvalued.' Relevant note: They have been saying that all the way up. The equities they like the least: Utilities, banks and Japan. (This columnist, who does not like crowds, has some money invested in the iShares Japan exchange-traded fund, EWJ.).
The Bank of America survey can be a great contrarian indicator although, as always in markets, it is far from infallible. In June/July 2007 it showed money managers were hugely bullish of European equities Merrill Lynch, as it then was, coined the term 'EU-phoria.' That proved the best possible moment to sell European equities, just before they went into freefall. And in April 2003 the survey was deeply bearish of Japanese equities. That proved an extremely good moment in which to buy…Japanese equities.
In isolation, the latest survey might be reason enough for caution.
And it is not in isolation.
Look at the valuations. Stocks are already trading at rich prices according to several long term measures. A lot of smart people have been increasingly pessimistic. Any investor looking to invest fresh money has for some weeks been struggling to find anything worth buying. Even blue chip equities with good dividend yields, one of the last assets that were offering some value, have been playing catch-up.
Now look at the broader picture. The latest debt panic in Europe is among a number of reminders that the financial crisis is not entirely in the rearview mirror. And now, maybe most ominously of all, come signs that the bond market mania is finally cracking. Treasury and corporate bonds have tumbled in the past couple of weeks, after hitting giddy and absurd heights. That suggests Ben Bernanke's confidence game may be coming to an end. Mr. Bernanke is promising to print money to buy up bonds. If investors had total confidence in his legerdemain, that would send bond prices higher, or at least keep them high. Apparently they may not have quite that degree of confidence after all.
Like I said: Oh, brother.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch says its latest survey of big fund managers, conducted between November 5 and 11, found 'market sentiment at its most bullish since April 2010.'
April? Hmmmm. Say, wasn't that just before the market slumped again?
Money managers have just dramatically raised their forecasts of economic growth (and inflation). And they have thrown as much money into stocks as they possibly could. Average cash holdings are down to just 3.5% one of the lowest readings on record.
Even hedge fund managers, those skeptical souls, have cautiously joined in. The survey shows their bets on rising shares, minus their bets on falling shares, have surged alarmingly since the summer. The most popular assets? Commodities, where institutions have become heavily over-invested, and emerging markets where they appear to have gone 'all in.'
This is ominous news. Big institutional investors move the market. If they have already invested most of their cash, it means there are fewer investors on the sidelines waiting to come in. Bank of America's survey polls around 200 big institutional investors around the world, with about $630 billion under management.
Among the other highlights from the survey: Money managers continue to shun gold, which they deem 'overvalued.' Relevant note: They have been saying that all the way up. The equities they like the least: Utilities, banks and Japan. (This columnist, who does not like crowds, has some money invested in the iShares Japan exchange-traded fund, EWJ.).
The Bank of America survey can be a great contrarian indicator although, as always in markets, it is far from infallible. In June/July 2007 it showed money managers were hugely bullish of European equities Merrill Lynch, as it then was, coined the term 'EU-phoria.' That proved the best possible moment to sell European equities, just before they went into freefall. And in April 2003 the survey was deeply bearish of Japanese equities. That proved an extremely good moment in which to buy…Japanese equities.
In isolation, the latest survey might be reason enough for caution.
And it is not in isolation.
Look at the valuations. Stocks are already trading at rich prices according to several long term measures. A lot of smart people have been increasingly pessimistic. Any investor looking to invest fresh money has for some weeks been struggling to find anything worth buying. Even blue chip equities with good dividend yields, one of the last assets that were offering some value, have been playing catch-up.
Now look at the broader picture. The latest debt panic in Europe is among a number of reminders that the financial crisis is not entirely in the rearview mirror. And now, maybe most ominously of all, come signs that the bond market mania is finally cracking. Treasury and corporate bonds have tumbled in the past couple of weeks, after hitting giddy and absurd heights. That suggests Ben Bernanke's confidence game may be coming to an end. Mr. Bernanke is promising to print money to buy up bonds. If investors had total confidence in his legerdemain, that would send bond prices higher, or at least keep them high. Apparently they may not have quite that degree of confidence after all.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
General Motors Co.'s shares rose a modest 3.6% Thursday
The stock opened at $35, a 6% rise on the IPO price, climbing to an intraday high of $35.99, up 9%, before settling at $34.19 in 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
'The GM IPO is a feather in the government's cap,' said Todd Colvin, vice president at MF Global, alluding to the U.S. Treasury's bailout of the auto maker last year. 'There's a bit of elation out there surrounding the stock. But now we're at a realization stage: can the auto maker sell cars and turn a profit? Those have to be the two questions on every investor's mind right now.'
Meanwhile, in Washington, President Barack Obama hailed the resurgence of GM and its return to the stock market, saying one of the 'toughest tales of the recession took another big step toward becoming a success story.'
'Two years ago this seemed impossible,' the president said. 'In fact there were plenty of doubters and naysayers who said it couldn't be done, who were ready to throw in the towel and read the American auto industry last rites.'
GM in its Wednesday IPO sold more shares than expected at a higher price than originally planned. While the move underscored how much more favorably investors view the company after its dramatic, U.S.-financed bankruptcy reorganization last year, it caused some concern that any first-day gains might be sucked out of the stock sale. That could indicate the company overreached in its pricing.
Earlier this week, GM raised the number of common shares in the offering to 478 million from 365 million, and boosted its price range to $32 to $33 from $26 to $29, ultimately raising $15.8 billion through the common shares in its offering, or 50% more than it had hoped for.
Underwriters aimed to keep GM's first-day 'pop' at 10%, give or take two percentage points. Though investors have come to expect bigger pops─in recent months stock sales have gone as high as 40% to 50% on their first trading day─bankers were dealing with a most unusual seller, the U.S. government.
Unlike private-company IPOs, where the selling company often is willing to sell at a deeper discount to ensure a good first-day send-off for the shares, the U.S. Treasury, the biggest owner of GM, wanted the maximum amount possible for its investment, which was financed with taxpayer dollars. There was concern that politicians and Wall Street would be criticized for leaving money on the table if the stock soared too high.
None of the money from the common-stock portion of the sale will flow to the car maker. The majority of the shares─358 million, or 412 million with an 'overallotment' option that allows the banks to sell additional shares─came from the U.S. Treasury, which took a controlling stake in GM as part of a taxpayer-financed bailout last year.
Through the sale, the Treasury reduced its stake to 37% from 66%, and it could go as low as 26% if the overallotment shares and warrants are exercised. It expects to further cut its ownership in future follow-on sales after a six-month 'lockup' period.
Along with the common stock offering, GM raised $4.35 billion in a preferred-stock sale that will go into the Detroit auto maker's own coffers. But that amount will quickly flow out again: GM plans to use the proceeds to buy back a separate tranche of preferred stock from the Treasury and to make a cash contribution to its union's pension plan.
If underwriters exercise their right to sell an additional 71.7 million shares in the overallotment, the total common stock sale could hit $18.1 billion, making it the second-largest U.S. IPO in history, after Visa Inc.'s $19.7 billion sale in 2008, according to Dealogic. Globally, GM's sale would be the fifth-largest IPO.
'The GM IPO is a feather in the government's cap,' said Todd Colvin, vice president at MF Global, alluding to the U.S. Treasury's bailout of the auto maker last year. 'There's a bit of elation out there surrounding the stock. But now we're at a realization stage: can the auto maker sell cars and turn a profit? Those have to be the two questions on every investor's mind right now.'
Meanwhile, in Washington, President Barack Obama hailed the resurgence of GM and its return to the stock market, saying one of the 'toughest tales of the recession took another big step toward becoming a success story.'
'Two years ago this seemed impossible,' the president said. 'In fact there were plenty of doubters and naysayers who said it couldn't be done, who were ready to throw in the towel and read the American auto industry last rites.'
GM in its Wednesday IPO sold more shares than expected at a higher price than originally planned. While the move underscored how much more favorably investors view the company after its dramatic, U.S.-financed bankruptcy reorganization last year, it caused some concern that any first-day gains might be sucked out of the stock sale. That could indicate the company overreached in its pricing.
Earlier this week, GM raised the number of common shares in the offering to 478 million from 365 million, and boosted its price range to $32 to $33 from $26 to $29, ultimately raising $15.8 billion through the common shares in its offering, or 50% more than it had hoped for.
Underwriters aimed to keep GM's first-day 'pop' at 10%, give or take two percentage points. Though investors have come to expect bigger pops─in recent months stock sales have gone as high as 40% to 50% on their first trading day─bankers were dealing with a most unusual seller, the U.S. government.
Unlike private-company IPOs, where the selling company often is willing to sell at a deeper discount to ensure a good first-day send-off for the shares, the U.S. Treasury, the biggest owner of GM, wanted the maximum amount possible for its investment, which was financed with taxpayer dollars. There was concern that politicians and Wall Street would be criticized for leaving money on the table if the stock soared too high.
None of the money from the common-stock portion of the sale will flow to the car maker. The majority of the shares─358 million, or 412 million with an 'overallotment' option that allows the banks to sell additional shares─came from the U.S. Treasury, which took a controlling stake in GM as part of a taxpayer-financed bailout last year.
Through the sale, the Treasury reduced its stake to 37% from 66%, and it could go as low as 26% if the overallotment shares and warrants are exercised. It expects to further cut its ownership in future follow-on sales after a six-month 'lockup' period.
Along with the common stock offering, GM raised $4.35 billion in a preferred-stock sale that will go into the Detroit auto maker's own coffers. But that amount will quickly flow out again: GM plans to use the proceeds to buy back a separate tranche of preferred stock from the Treasury and to make a cash contribution to its union's pension plan.
If underwriters exercise their right to sell an additional 71.7 million shares in the overallotment, the total common stock sale could hit $18.1 billion, making it the second-largest U.S. IPO in history, after Visa Inc.'s $19.7 billion sale in 2008, according to Dealogic. Globally, GM's sale would be the fifth-largest IPO.
Friday, November 19, 2010
The Aussie grape, Shiraz, is the same as the French grape from the Northern Rhône valley
This sun-loving grape flourishes in warm climes, and the ripe fruits produce wines powerful in taste, but soft in texture. The signature spiced flavor makes it easily distinguished from other reds.
The taste. Think of flavors you'd find in a pie. Jammy fruits and scents from the spice rack - sweet (cinnamon, cloves, and nutmeg) and savory (cumin, black pepper, and chili). In addition to these hearty winter flavors, you may also detect a rich, tropical fruit note - pineapples, coconut, mangos, or even banana.
The pairing. Less serious and composed than a Cabernet Sauvignon or Pinot Noir, Shiraz is nevertheless not crass. It's a fine choice with a plate of foie gras, but also works just as well with a juicy burger on a picnic blanket.
The bargain. Shiraz has become a beloved up-and-comer grape in recent years. Fortunately, it has remained relatively affordable. It has yet to enjoy the fanfare given to Bordeaux or Burgundies that can generate record-breaking prices. Chances are, if you are buying a bottle of Shiraz, it's to drink.
The taste. Think of flavors you'd find in a pie. Jammy fruits and scents from the spice rack - sweet (cinnamon, cloves, and nutmeg) and savory (cumin, black pepper, and chili). In addition to these hearty winter flavors, you may also detect a rich, tropical fruit note - pineapples, coconut, mangos, or even banana.
The pairing. Less serious and composed than a Cabernet Sauvignon or Pinot Noir, Shiraz is nevertheless not crass. It's a fine choice with a plate of foie gras, but also works just as well with a juicy burger on a picnic blanket.
The bargain. Shiraz has become a beloved up-and-comer grape in recent years. Fortunately, it has remained relatively affordable. It has yet to enjoy the fanfare given to Bordeaux or Burgundies that can generate record-breaking prices. Chances are, if you are buying a bottle of Shiraz, it's to drink.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Chinese watch collectors have begun to shift their focus toward vintage pieces
It boils down to heritage and nostalgia: 'As the Chinese buyers grow older, antique styles remind them of their fathers and grandfathers,' says Pansy Ku, a watch specialist at Christie's. 'Vintage watches can be quite regal. After all timepieces were a pastime of some Chinese emperors.'
Indeed. Each season, Christie's presents a range of 19th-century timepieces made especially for the Chinese market. Not surprisingly, these tend to be popular with Chinese buyers. In 2005, Christies brought to auction a circa-1820 18-karat gold, enamel and pearl Piguet & Meylan watch. Stamped FO for its Geneva maker, Frères Oltramare, the watch carried a top estimate of 550,000 Hong Kong dollars (US$70,700). It sold for just over HK$3 million. Three years later, a pair of circa-1820 gold, enamel and seed pearl Piguet & Meylan pocket watches went on the block at Christie's. They reputedly were a gift from the English royal family to the Emperor Qianlong. The estimate: HK$1.2 million to HK$2 million. The sales price: HK$2,900,000.
This year, at the auction house's Dec. 2 auction of watches, five 19th-century timepieces made especially for the Chinese market are coming up for sale. One, a circa-1877 gold-and-enamel pocket watch depicting three angels, is estimated to sell for between HK$320,000 and HK$480,000.
Indeed. Each season, Christie's presents a range of 19th-century timepieces made especially for the Chinese market. Not surprisingly, these tend to be popular with Chinese buyers. In 2005, Christies brought to auction a circa-1820 18-karat gold, enamel and pearl Piguet & Meylan watch. Stamped FO for its Geneva maker, Frères Oltramare, the watch carried a top estimate of 550,000 Hong Kong dollars (US$70,700). It sold for just over HK$3 million. Three years later, a pair of circa-1820 gold, enamel and seed pearl Piguet & Meylan pocket watches went on the block at Christie's. They reputedly were a gift from the English royal family to the Emperor Qianlong. The estimate: HK$1.2 million to HK$2 million. The sales price: HK$2,900,000.
This year, at the auction house's Dec. 2 auction of watches, five 19th-century timepieces made especially for the Chinese market are coming up for sale. One, a circa-1877 gold-and-enamel pocket watch depicting three angels, is estimated to sell for between HK$320,000 and HK$480,000.
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